Photo : BBC
NIAS Europe Daily Brief #17, 21 October 2021, Thursday
IN FOCUS
By Vaishnavi Iyer
Profile: France's Eric Zemmour
Zemmour, 63, is an anti-immigrant writer of Algerian-Jewish descent. He previously served as a TV commentator and is a popular figure in the opinion polls. Convicted twice for religious and racial provocation, he admires Trump and is a holocaust denier. He also believes the state protected the Jews during the Second World War. He has strong constraints towards immigration, Muslims, and feminism. He considers French education as being "infiltrated by Marxism, anti-racism, and LGBT ideologies," leading to the decline of the French state. In his anti-establishment campaign at Beziers, Zemmour's rise witnessed an overturn in French politics.
Earlier this week, one could predict a rematch in the second round between Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen. Polls also showcased a disappointed left-voting crowd that was devoid of alternatives. The opinion poll from Harris Interactive for Challenges magazine has noted the rise of Eric Zemmour to likely contest against Macron. While Macron led with 24 to 27 percent, Zemmour gained 17 to 18 percent. Both have not declared their candidacy. Zemmour's emergence is similar to Macron's, where they both emerged unexpectedly and began outranking potential candidates.
While most voters seem unexcited at the prospects, Pascal Perrineau from Sciences Po commented: "The French want to upset a political order that hasn't won them over, and Éric Zemmour appears to be the bowling ball that's going to knock down all the pins."
Previously, Macron has focused on gaining support on the right and closing the second round with Le Pen being voted out. With the new polls, it is unclear whom Macron will go against in the second round. Macron supporters are reluctant to target Zemmour, fearing his prominence, while they are also curious about the ideology of a "declining France" that Zemmour has been promoting. Moreover, Zemmour has created the possibility of outflanking Le Pen. In the previous years, Le Pen spent a substantial time to "detoxify" her xenophobic party; however the efforts seem to be in vain given the challenge she faces against another far-right figure.
Zemmour has successfully brought back discussions on the reverse colonization of France, the rise of feminism, and the loss of virility. He also spoke about the "great replacement" — a theory that has been cited by many gunmen. His supporters include voters that are against the larger "wokisme" base. The voter bank for Zemmour would be people who believe in French colour-blind society, perceive the threat of an American-style vision for France and the ill effects of the #MeToo movement. Zemmour plays on the past nostalgia and the threat to the existing culture posed by African immigrants who may dissolve France into a global conglomerate devoid of the real French culture. Younger voters are wary of Zemmour's statements on abolishing non-French first names, pointing a sniper rifle at the media, and commenting on the media's intention of ruining the French image. In the second run-off, Macron may be rejected more than Le Pen, but Zemmour could be more repulsive than Macron.
The Mayor of Beziers, where Zemmour organized his rally, advised Zemmour and Le Pen to collaborate to attain victory. Beziers has been Le Pen's vote bank, and Zemmour may require more support to win the area. France's far-right party, the Les Républicains, is yet to name their candidate. Despite the shift to the right in recent years, French politics remains divided. The traditional right has sometimes sought Zemmour's support to lure voters. Currently, politicians like Macron, Marine Le Pen, and now Zemmour are eager to carve out their own space in this divided political atmosphere. Many of the Les Républicains fear a similar fall to that of the Socialists in the previous elections. Most opponents of Zemmour are hoping his popularity wanes when he declares candidacy. Since he is an independent candidate, financing his campaign and getting the required 500 signatures from officials elected across France would also be a challenge to him. Eric Zemmour's rise is definitely paving a new road in French politics.
References
Victor Mallet, "The French disrupter: Eric Zemmour shakes up presidential race," The Financial Times, 21 October 2021
Lucy Williamson, "Eric Zemmour: Far-right journalist cast as Macron election rival," BBC, 19 October 2021
Norimitsu Onishi, "Rise of a Far-Right Pundit Is Scrambling French Politics," The New York Times, 12 October 2021
IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Padmashree Anandhan
REGIONAL
Brussels: European Council leaders discuss energy and rule of law
On 21 October, the European Council gathered at Brussels for a two-day summit. The main agenda included discussing the soaring energy prices; however, Poland's recent antics challenging the EU's rule of law overshadowed the summit's primary agenda. Other issues on the agenda include the resurfacing coronavirus hot spots, migration, etc. The summit saw 502 of the 671 members of the European Parliament (MEPs) voting in favour of a resolution that calls for strict action against Poland in the form of withholding of funds and initiating Article 7. European Parliament President David Sassoli, who was absent for the summit, accused Poland of disputing "the legal bedrock" of the EU. Separately, commenting on the European energy price crisis, the EU Foreign Policy chief Josep Borrell said: "Energy prices today are the consequences of a big geopolitical game with a strong external dimension," which was most likely a reference to Russia. (Maia de La Baume, "European Council: Live blog – POLITICO," POLITICO, 21 October 2021)
Storm Aurore: Violent winds wreak havoc in western and northern Europe
On 21 October, powerful winds struck Germany, the Netherlands, France, Luxembourg and Belgium along with Poland and the UK. Storm Aurore, the first of the autumn storms, caused severe damages to property and infrastructure leading to the suspension of trains, uprooting of trees and collapsing of roofs. Meanwhile, the Netherlands reported four people as casualties as Poland witnessed four fatalities. In France, the gust of winds saw trees falling on power lines creating a power outage as 250,000 homes lacked electricity. Flash floods and thunderstorms were also witnessed in these regions. ("Strong winds blow out the power, disrupts trains in parts of western Europe," Deutsche Welle, 21 October 2021)
COVID-19
Europe experiences fourth wave as infections surge; lockdowns imposed
The World Health Organization has reported a seven per cent increase in new coronavirus cases across Europe in the last week, being the only region to record new cases. Central and eastern Europe has been affected due to low vaccination rates. Latvia, which had been off the pandemic radar, has now become the first country to announce a surge in infections. A similar situation persists in Poland and Slovakia while Belgium witnessed a hike of 53 percent along with Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine. In Russia, however, the denial to impose a nationwide lockdown citing economic concerns, has led them to announce a complete lockdown due to the surge in infections. Meanwhile, the UK and the Netherlands, which are heavily vaccinated countries, are also experiencing a surge of 44 per cent of new infections due to colder weather and poor restrictions. The hospitals in these countries have gone back to their old ways of cutting down regular health care to prioritize the unvaccinated cases. (Pjotr Sauer, "Latvia is first country to reimpose lockdown in Europe's new Covid wave," The Guardian, 20 October 2021; Pjotr Sauer, "Moscow announces one-week lockdown as Russia Covid deaths rise," The Guardian, 21 October 2021; Camille Gijs, "Belgium's fourth coronavirus wave has started, says health minister," POLITICO, 21 October 2021)
SPORTS
France: French sex tape scandal trial involving Karim Benzema begins
On 20 October, the three-day trial against French international footballer Karim Benzema commenced. Benzema has been charged with 'complicity in attempted blackmail' for implicating his former teammate and footballer Mathieu Valbuena. Benzema, reportedly, pushed Valbuena to pay the racketeers by blackmailing him with a sex tape. According to the prosecutors, the blackmailers inducted the Real Madrid striker so that he would convince Valbuena to pay up. Post the 2015 scandal, Valbuena and Benzema lost their spots in the French team, despite Benzema confirming his innocence. Valbuena believes the scandal ended his international career: "I'd have preferred to be left out of the French team for sporting reasons… When you've always been a good player and proudly worn the French shirt, it's always hard to accept… it's a wound that's difficult to get over." Benzema did not show up in the Versailles court and maintained that the charge against him was a "masquerade". ("Karim Benzema: French sex tape blackmail case trial starts," BBC, 21 October 2021; Kim Willsher, "Real Madrid star Karim Benzema goes on trial in sex tape case," The Guardian, 20 October 2021)
INTERNATIONAL
Russia: Moscow Conference on Afghanistan
On 20 October, Russia hosted talks in Moscow to discuss the Afghanistan crisis. The talk was attended by officials from 10 countries including China and Pakistan along with officials from the Taliban. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called for an inclusive government in Afghanistan which prioritized human and women rights, as he explained the necessity of good governance in gaining recognition. Most importantly, the threat of ISIS in northern Afghanistan and drug trafficking was flagged by the Russians. So far, Taliban's request for recognition has been denied and Russia as a countermeasure has deployed a series of joint drills in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. (Emma Graham-Harrison, and agencies in Moscow, "Russia holds high-profile Afghanistan talks with Taliban," The Guardian, 20 October 2021; "Taliban pleads for recognition at Moscow talks," Deutsche Welle, 20 October 2021)
The UK: Johnson signs trade deal with New Zealand
After 16 months of discussions, the Prime Ministers of the UK and New Zealand, Boris Johnson and Jacinda Ardern, signed a trade deal via a virtual meeting. The deal is aimed to shoot up New Zealand's economy by NZD one billion. This will occur through the elimination of tariffs on almost 97 per cent of goods including wine, butter, cheese, beef, and lamb. According to the UK ministers, this trade deal could be an alternate entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) post-Brexit. CPTPP entails 11 countries including Japan, Australia, Singapore, Mexico among others. ("UK and New Zealand ink trade deal on wide range of goods," Deutsche Welle, 21 October 2021; Emilio Casalicchio, "Historic UK snub to New Zealand put to bed with trade deal," POLITICO, 20 October 2021)
EU adopts resolution to strengthen ties with Taiwan
On 21 October, The European Parliament ratified a non-binding resolution that would strengthen ties between the EU and Taiwan. The resolution essentially pushed for a new investment deal with Taiwan. The announcement comes amidst the increasing airspace violations and Chinese military presence in Taiwan. According to MEP Charlie Weimers: "The European Parliament's first report on EU-Taiwan relations demonstrates that the EU is ready to upgrade its relationship with our key partner Taiwan." The investment agreement will engage both parties to cooperate on critical supplies like semiconductors. While the Chinese Foreign ministry has condemned the move, Taiwan sees it as a new milestone in its diplomatic relations. ("EU lawmakers push to 'upgrade' ties with Taiwan," Deutsche Welle, 21 October 2021)